Why make predictions about technology at all? I am writing this from a train which was predicted to be at its destination half an hour ago, but is still stuck between stations. If we can’t make accurate predictions about a well-known system with years worth of data, how could we possibly make predictions about the ever-changing field of technology?

Yet the process of attempting to make predictions tells us something, even if individual predictions are wrong. This particular train might not arrive as predicted, but I expect that there is a model somewhere which predicts the overall number of trains that will be delayed - and this delay may be consistent with that prediction. Somebody had to develop that model, and that process will have found something interesting about the factors that affect the reliability of trains.

Similarly, while it’s hard to make predictions about the future of technology, the process of attempting to figure out what’s coming next can be useful. It forces us to use our imaginations, to think about the consequences of choices we are making today, and to recognise the limitations of our own knowledge.